Michael Shifter
Michael Shifter
Michael Shifter is President of the Inter-American Dialogue and an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He is also a member of the Latin American Studies Association, and a contributing editor to Current History...
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The possibility we'll have another Chavez acolyte in Peru represents a serious challenge to the economic model and a threat to democracy.
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More than any other leader, he is shaping the agenda and setting the terms of debate in the region. Chavez has the initiative, he's on the offensive, and everyone else is reacting to what he says and does.
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These conflicting messages reflect a lack of clarity and coherence. When (Venezuelan President Hugo) Chavez speaks, they react. There is no strategy of thinking longer-term and in more strategic terms.
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To be frank, it doesn't surprise me. Chavez is a case apart; but if you look at the finance ministers -- Chile, Uruguay, Brazil -- all of them would please Milton Friedman with their fiscal discipline and their closing down of debts. And even those on the left stress 'effectiveness' as the model. It shows that the old labels don't have a lot of meaning in the present context.
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The way Robertson's declarations will play in Latin America is that Chavez is right and that the U.S. is out to get him.
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It looks like we are headed for a collision. Chavez realizes that the U.S. doesn't have an idea of how to deal with him.
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I think he's saying that the U.S. doesn't have to control everything ? that the U.S. is able to sort of yield, and when it does, things can go well,
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When you have that amount of concentrated power, bad things tend to happen.
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Those words must have been welcome to anxious business groups, who feared a fiercely confrontational tone. He hit some conciliatory notes.
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The fact that he is going is a credit to him, because there was a lot of speculation he wouldn't,
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There is powerful symbolism in what's happening in Costa Rica. Here is a country with enormous affinity with the United States, where there is a tremendous convergence of shared values ... and even they are not convinced that unquestioned support of the United States is in their best interests.
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The question is, when it comes time to confront those policy decisions, whether that could create more violence or unrest.
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Unless Flores embarks on ... social reform aimed at addressing the country's exclusion and inequality, political unrest could mount during her presidency.
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With this move, he risks alienating natural and otherwise sympathetic partners like Brazil and Spain. Ordering the military to seize the natural gas fields is unnecessarily confrontational and antagonistic.