Michael Wittner
Michael Wittner
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The upstream and downstream constraints are real and long-term and we're seeing almost daily examples of them. We're going to have a very strong price environment until the steam is taken out of demand or until investment catches up and restores a spare capacity cushion to production and refining.
product
If there is a bearish theme, it's about U.S. product demand.
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There is underlying caution, even on the part of Saudi Arabia, about the second quarter. I wouldn't rule out the potential for bullish language about a possible cut in March or April.
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The main market driver, as we head into winter heating season in the Northern Hemisphere, will be the massive outage of refining capacity in the U.S. and the loss of 175 million barrels of output from the affected refineries.
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Winter heating oil and gas oil stocks are comfortable right now, but we've lost a lot of refining capacity in the U.S. It's amazingly bullish. That's the bottom line.