Mike Englund
Mike Englund
areas existing geographic home line passed peak primarily seen
For existing home sales, we may have passed the peak in 2005. The story line for 2006 is going to be a slowdown, primarily in those geographic areas that have seen big gains.
claims consistent current data initial level low
The current level of initial claims data is consistent with a historically low unemployment rate.
added broader confidence mix numbers perhaps unexpected worry
The confidence numbers are perhaps the most unexpected and perhaps added a little worry to the broader mix
dating leads measure nearly pattern perfect prediction pure
This more pure measure has a nearly perfect prediction pattern dating back to 1966, with leads of 9-20 months.
basically economy entering gaining later likely quarter signals slow strong though year
We're basically entering the year on a pretty strong clip, even though the economy is likely to slow later in 2006. The first signals for the first quarter show the economy is gaining speed.