Mike Englund
Mike Englund
curve fed half result starting throughout year yield
Fed tightening is being transmitted throughout the yield curve to other rates, so we're really just starting to see the result of a year and a half of Fed tightening.
dating leads measure nearly pattern perfect prediction pure
This more pure measure has a nearly perfect prediction pattern dating back to 1966, with leads of 9-20 months.
backdrop combined continues economy job momentum mortgage near provide rates remain solid
The momentum in the economy and job market, combined with mortgage rates that remain near generational lows, continues to provide a solid backdrop for housing,
claims consistent current data initial level low
The current level of initial claims data is consistent with a historically low unemployment rate.
added broader confidence mix numbers perhaps unexpected worry
The confidence numbers are perhaps the most unexpected and perhaps added a little worry to the broader mix
bounce energy higher katrina likely prices sap sentiment strength
Higher energy prices could sap some strength from real growth, but sentiment is likely to bounce once Katrina disruptions abate.
areas existing geographic home line passed peak primarily seen
For existing home sales, we may have passed the peak in 2005. The story line for 2006 is going to be a slowdown, primarily in those geographic areas that have seen big gains.
claims continued growth initial payroll remain
As long as initial claims remain on a comfortable 320,000 glide-path into the new year, we should see continued payroll growth of 180,000 to 190,000.
activity auto consumer depending economic employment felt friday january looks pulling quite sales spending turn
We had felt auto sales would be the wart, the one thing pulling consumer spending down in the month, but these sales were solid. Depending on what we get for employment Friday it looks like January economic activity will turn out to be quite solid.
basically economy entering gaining later likely quarter signals slow strong though year
We're basically entering the year on a pretty strong clip, even though the economy is likely to slow later in 2006. The first signals for the first quarter show the economy is gaining speed.