Mike Wittner
Mike Wittner
bottom convinced demand line market needs seems
The bottom line is US demand seems to be recovering, but the market still needs to be convinced of that.
appears crude gas lead likely oil order perform winter
It appears increasingly likely that we will need colder-than-normal temperatures in order for heating oil and gas oil to perform this winter and lead crude up,
chances correction downside market oil passing upside warm week
With each passing week of warm weather, the upside diminishes, the downside increases, and the chances of an oil market correction before the springtime also increase.
cold price trading
We're trading on the weather. It's cold in New York, so the price is going up.
driving factors market nice reminder step
When you step back and put it all together, it's nice timing. It's a New Year's reminder of the geo-political factors that are driving the market higher.
couple figure happens last market pause weeks
We had such a big run-up in the last couple of weeks that the market is going to want to consolidate and pause to figure out what happens next.
declining markets oil production several uk
But markets are not really surprised. UK oil production has been declining for several years.
capacity further goes hit south
There is a lot of refinery capacity around Houston. If (Hurricane Rita) goes further south then it could hit refineries around Corpus Christi.
capacity chance crude demand happened issue lost political production reason risk spare worry
The reason we worry about political risk is that it has a chance to become a real fundamental factor, like it happened in Nigeria, where you lost some real supply. The spare capacity issue for refining and crude production still underlies everything because demand is still healthy.
driver general iran key massive money oil prices since start
The speculative money is as much of a key driver for oil prices as Iran and Nigeria. There has been a massive influx of new money into commodities in general since the start of the year.
bits declines field otherwise size
Declines will continue. There is only one new field of any size - the Buzzard field - set to come online. Otherwise it's just bits and pieces.
coming commodity money
Another surge of new money is coming into the commodity markets.
bet early far short
As far as making a big bet on the weather, even if you're bearish it's still too early to go short in a big way.
continue crude markets near prices product strengthen
In the near term, the markets will continue to strengthen and weaken with the weather, and crude and product prices will be range-bound.