Paul Ferley
Paul Ferley
bottom core inflation line
Bottom line is it's not flagging any inflation pressures, at least on a core basis.
evident expected fed housing saw shipments starts strength stronger
The day saw some offsetting developments with strength evident in U.S. housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed index and in Canada, a stronger than expected manufacturing shipments report.
below bubble close conditions expectation gains growth housing increases moderate mortgage present price prices rates recent require rising sharp since slow soon start thus
Bubble conditions may not be present yet but are approaching such and thus require close monitoring going forward. To allay this concern, housing price increases will need to start to moderate soon from recent sharp increases. Our expectation is that this should occur, since rising mortgage rates should slow the growth in housing prices to a rate below gains in income.
bank buy canada canadian higher inflation interest investors labor market raise rate rates taking
The labor market is getting too tight, so the Bank of Canada may have to raise the rate more aggressively to keep inflation from taking hold. Higher interest rates get investors to buy the Canadian dollar.
bank canada flag further markets move outlook poised rate sidelines tomorrow waiting whether
Markets are probably waiting for the announcement by the Bank of Canada tomorrow to get a sense of the characterization of the near-term outlook for policy: whether they'll flag they're poised to move to the sidelines or whether they're still contemplating further rate hikes.
exception generally indication move paid prices provides saw strength
We saw most of the indicators move up in the month, with the exception of the prices paid index, which generally provides an indication of strength in activity.