Paul Horsnell
Paul Horsnell
basis far fast hard market pushed seems
The market seems to have pushed far too far, far too fast and on the basis of far too little hard information.
abandon area continues france issue later likely major market potential relations rise seems talks week
The issue of Iran's international relations continues to rise to the fore as a major potential area of market concern. It now seems likely that the EU3 of Germany, UK, and France will later this week abandon the mothballed talks with Iran.
barrels initial million question
The initial question is where is the 2 million barrels going to come from.
brings close downward drift drifting dynamic months three
It's a downward drift that's been going on to close to three months now. And there's no dynamic that brings it around for the moment, so we can keep on drifting down.
appears concern economic further immediate political prospect remains setbacks severe
The most immediate concern remains Iraq, where the prospect of further severe political and economic setbacks appears to be increasing.
attempt blunt bound decided however imperfect mechanisms member might nations regulate using
In effect, the member nations of the IEA have decided to attempt to regulate the upper bound on prices. They did that by using what mechanisms they had, however blunt and imperfect they might be.
clearly expectation increased level market previous russian statement support
The Russian statement is clearly bullish, as the market expectation of any support for OPEC from Russia has increased from its previous level of zero.
continuing enforce imminent increased iraqi number oil price prospects recently seem view
Developments are continuing to enforce a very downbeat view on prospects for the Iraqi oil sector. In all, the recently increased number of analyses implying imminent and unavoidable price collapses do seem a little premature.
breaking hurricane months slack
Even before the hurricane there was no slack in the refining system, ... Now it's at breaking point. Those refineries will take months to come back online.
few magic within
If you had a magic wand solution, your magic wand would give you a few more refineries within the US system,
extreme faces market period prospect shocks sufficient
The market faces the prospect of years without sufficient flexibility or insulation from shocks during a period of extreme geopolitical stress.
add cannot crude fix huge impact minor oil shortage time
The shortage is in gasoline, so you would need to add huge amounts of crude oil to have even a minor impact on prices. This is a time when the shortage has nothing to do with crude oil, and OPEC cannot fix it.
extremely falling gaining ground inventory remains situation total
The U.S. inventory situation remains extremely tight, with total inventories still falling and gaining no ground on the five-year average.
five instant seven six
There is no instant turnaround. It could take five years, six years or seven years.