Paul Horsnell
Paul Horsnell
believe currently external iran key matters relations remain
We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wildcard.
attempt blunt bound decided however imperfect mechanisms member might nations regulate using
In effect, the member nations of the IEA have decided to attempt to regulate the upper bound on prices. They did that by using what mechanisms they had, however blunt and imperfect they might be.
abandon area continues france issue later likely major market potential relations rise seems talks week
The issue of Iran's international relations continues to rise to the fore as a major potential area of market concern. It now seems likely that the EU3 of Germany, UK, and France will later this week abandon the mothballed talks with Iran.
barrels initial million question
The initial question is where is the 2 million barrels going to come from.
brings close downward drift drifting dynamic months three
It's a downward drift that's been going on to close to three months now. And there's no dynamic that brings it around for the moment, so we can keep on drifting down.
appears concern economic further immediate political prospect remains setbacks severe
The most immediate concern remains Iraq, where the prospect of further severe political and economic setbacks appears to be increasing.
clearly expectation increased level market previous russian statement support
The Russian statement is clearly bullish, as the market expectation of any support for OPEC from Russia has increased from its previous level of zero.
continuing enforce imminent increased iraqi number oil price prospects recently seem view
Developments are continuing to enforce a very downbeat view on prospects for the Iraqi oil sector. In all, the recently increased number of analyses implying imminent and unavoidable price collapses do seem a little premature.
breaking hurricane months slack
Even before the hurricane there was no slack in the refining system, ... Now it's at breaking point. Those refineries will take months to come back online.
absence brakes checked either energy fairly ferocious likely middle move normality pressure price release spike strategic towards upwards
We are in the middle of a fairly ferocious energy price spike. The spike could be checked by a move back towards normality in Venezuela, or by a release of U.S. strategic reserves. However, the application of either of these brakes does not look particularly imminent, and in their absence the upwards pressure is likely to continue.
area bear chemical concentration consequences extremely intensity plants potential relatively small thinking
The potential consequences don't even bear thinking about. There's such a concentration of refineries and chemical plants in a relatively small area that anything of that kind of intensity would be extremely nasty.