Paul Nolte
Paul Nolte
analysis bond came debating energy federal heading hikes looking moderation next prices residual seeing
We're getting a moderation in bond yields, and energy prices came down today. We're looking at things more favorably than this morning. There's still residual analysis about the Federal Reserve, and we're seeing some gamesmanship heading into next week's meeting, debating how more hikes we have.
added couple currently curve economic fed funds good growth hike kicking man markets past pricing rate signal talk yield
Already the futures markets are pricing in another rate hike and talk about a 5.0-plus fed funds rate is making the rounds. The currently inverted yield curve may also be a signal to the Fed that the economic growth of the past couple of years may be waning and any added tightening may be like kicking a good man while he is down.
continue fed good growth hike job numbers pressure rate slow trends wage
The numbers are good from the Fed's perspective, even with November's ramped up numbers. Job growth is still slow and wage pressure has been nonexistent all year. If trends continue it could put pressure on the consumer. We may see the Fed have one more rate hike and then (be) done.
fed market meeting mixed negative net news next oracle positive price producer sitting watching
You've got some positive news on oil, some negative news on Oracle and some mixed news from the producer price index. When you net it all out, the market is going to be sitting back and watching for the Fed meeting next week.
couple interested investors last selling strong telling trend volume weak
We have strong volume on down days, and weak volume on up days. That's the trend for the last couple weeks. That's telling that investors are more interested in selling than they are buying.
overall paid prices
Overall it doesn't look too bad. The prices paid is a concern. We'd like to see it come down a little. It's an inflationary key.
difference diplomatic east japanese less markets middle oil prices stellar week
What a difference a week makes, from improprieties in the Japanese markets to still-higher oil prices amid diplomatic rumblings in the Middle East to less than stellar earnings.
environment fact happens matter
We still like the fact that we're in an environment where no matter what happens in the economy, they (pharmaceutical companies) are still going to be doing business.
economy figuring growth investors reasonable seeing strength translate
We're still seeing reasonable growth in the economy ... and investors are figuring this is going to translate into strength in earnings.
bond certainly competition good providing risks
We're still absorbing a lot of things. The risks right now are certainly still with the bond market. It's providing some good competition for stocks.
additional broken commit dollars trading
We may have broken out of our trading range, but we would like to see some follow-through before we commit additional dollars to the market.
attention economic paying phenomenon worth
But that's more of a short-term phenomenon than anything worth paying a lot of attention to, ... it's going to come down to better economic numbers.
erosion expect gradual movement sharp stocks
I don't expect to see a sharp movement in stocks -- it will be a gradual erosion over time.
destroy greenspan june last legacy months next price raised rates secure six stability tenure wake year
Greenspan is not going to wake up in June of next year and say 'I should have really raised rates more aggressively.' His legacy of price stability is pretty secure so I don't think the last six months of his tenure will destroy it for him.