Peter Cardillo
Peter Cardillo
1972 Harlem mosque incident describes the April 14, 1972 shooting of a New York City Police Departmentofficer at the Nation of Islam Mosque No. 7 in Harlem, Manhattan, New York City. The officer responded to a fake 9-1-1 call, was shot and died six days later. The incident sparked political and public outcry about mishandling of the incident by the NYPD and the administration of Mayor John V. Lindsay...
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It is obvious that the economy continues to grow and that the job market is growing. Today's numbers are offering investors a sense of relief that perhaps the Fed may not have to be too aggressive in raising interest rates.
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I think there are some signs out there that the economy is beginning to slow. That's going to keep the Fed on the sidelines at least through May and it's also eventually working its way into the markets.
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I suspect the main focus of the day will be the Fed minutes. It looks like we'll get a strong start on the strength in overseas markets, but we'll probably be trading sideways until the minutes are released.
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Until there is a positive indication in economic data that the economy is slowing down, the Fed has to stay ahead of the curve.
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We're seeing a cautious market because of the Fed meeting. There are a lot of events the markets need to sort through, and the most important one is Mr. Greenspan.
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If we see any upward revision (in unit labor costs) that would give the Fed reason not to pause.
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Basically, the market is fearful now that the Fed may need to be more aggressive in raising interest rates.
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Basically it's individual stocks outperforming the rest of the market. The feeling that the Fed is not going to raise is infiltrating the whole marketplace and what we're now looking at is future earnings, but we're still in that rotation mode.
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Basically it's individual stocks outperforming the rest of the market, ... The feeling that the Fed is not going to raise is infiltrating the whole marketplace and what we're now looking at is future earnings, but we're still in that rotation mode.
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If we get a strong number (Friday) it could rekindle fears of another Fed tightening and that will keep investors on the defensive.
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If the dollar continues to fall, and we end up in a free fall, at one point the Fed will have to be more aggressive, ... They may have to respond by raising interest rates by half a point.
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If the CPI core rate shows not much of a rise then the market will be able to just focus on good earnings. It will show that the Fed is staying ahead of the inflation curve, which is a positive for the market.
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If the Fed doesn't at least hint that a pause could be on the way, I think that would surprise the market.
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If oil continues to stay at these levels for a sustained period, it will bite into economic activity and renew inflationary pressure. That could put into question if and when the Fed will end its tightening cycle.