Peter Kretzmer
Peter Kretzmer
auto ended growth largely quarter reflects return spending strong
Spending ended the quarter on a strong note, and that largely reflects the return of growth in auto sales. It's confirmation that spending was getting back on track.
sign strong
It is a strong number. There is little sign of a slowdown,
affect continues cooling declining evidence higher home housing market mortgage mount rates rising starting
Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.
claims conditions continued department estimates hurricane including indicate labor market outside reports since solid
Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,
basis buck built continues fed move points
It assures that the Fed continues to not buck what was built into the futures contract, and will move by 25 basis points in September.
couple instead percent reckoning subtract
My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent,
meaning worried
We don't know if there is any meaning to the slowdown in these other categories. I wouldn't be too worried about it.
activity business companies confirm continue economic expand investment later offices remains report retail shown slow spending strong year
We look for the report to confirm that economic activity remains strong. Retail spending will slow later this year but that hasn't shown up yet, and business investment should continue to be pretty strong as companies expand offices and factories.
assume direct economic events fed gulf late pauses rather related response slowing year
If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast.
demand higher home interest likely ownership properties push rates rising stronger
With interest rates rising and demand for new home ownership slowing, it is likely that stronger demand for rental properties will push rental rates up at a higher pace.
commodity inflation prices since
There hasn't been a lot of correlation between commodity prices and inflation since 1990.
concerned fed impact inflation markets surprised thinking
The thinking that has surprised us has been that the markets and the Fed have been more concerned about the impact on inflation expectations than they've been about real growth.
chances crude fed further gradual hurt line means oil prices raising
If crude oil prices keep on rising, the chances that consumption is going to be hurt further down the line rises. That means the Fed could be more gradual in raising rates.
bounce break figure next numbers percent
The numbers are a little better than we expected. Still, these things bounce around, and I think we'll probably see the unemployment figure break 4.5 percent next month.