Peter Kretzmer
Peter Kretzmer
consumer economy faster grow spending
The economy will grow faster in the first quarter. Consumer spending is recovering.
beginning consumer decline levels longer run sales spending toward vehicle
As vehicle sales decline toward longer run levels beginning in August, consumer spending will slow.
claims conditions continued department estimates hurricane including indicate labor market outside reports since solid
Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,
basis buck built continues fed move points
It assures that the Fed continues to not buck what was built into the futures contract, and will move by 25 basis points in September.
deficit finally huge trade
The huge U.S. trade deficit may finally be stabilizing.
couple instead percent reckoning subtract
My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent,
conclude continue main point remove sit
The main point is that when they sit down, they will conclude that what we want to do is to continue to remove the accommodative policy,
conditions consistent improving labor market
That's consistent with the idea that labor market conditions are not really improving yet. They're not getting worse, either, but they've only stabilized.
chances crude fed further gradual hurt line means oil prices raising
If crude oil prices keep on rising, the chances that consumption is going to be hurt further down the line rises. That means the Fed could be more gradual in raising rates.
assume direct economic events fed gulf late pauses rather related response slowing year
If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast.
bounce break figure next numbers percent
The numbers are a little better than we expected. Still, these things bounce around, and I think we'll probably see the unemployment figure break 4.5 percent next month.
demand higher home interest likely ownership properties push rates rising stronger
With interest rates rising and demand for new home ownership slowing, it is likely that stronger demand for rental properties will push rental rates up at a higher pace.
meaning worried
We don't know if there is any meaning to the slowdown in these other categories. I wouldn't be too worried about it.