Richard DeKaser
Richard DeKaser
might next shock time
What the shock might be next time is unpredictable.
admission fed january locks march neutral odds strong
This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.
credible talking
If you go back just 90 days, there were credible assertions of $100-a-barrel oil. No one is talking about that anymore.
becoming far income increases price
It is a little concerning. The implication here is that over-valuation is becoming more prevalent. There is no disputing that price increases are far outstripping income gains,
context favorable fed gives inevitable inflation latitude past rate recent seen
This is a very favorable report. In the context of what we've seen in the recent past, the Fed is right to say that inflation has been quiescent. It gives them more latitude to forestall an inevitable rate hike.
bubbling concern fed inflation measured path since start year
On the whole this will assuage some of the concern that's been bubbling up about inflation since the start of the year and should keep the Fed on its measured path for now.
areas conditions labor outside sustained welcome
It's still a welcome number. It showed sustained labor conditions outside of the areas impacted by the two hurricanes.
caused concern economic increase january marked oil related
January marked an end to the economic concern caused by the hurricanes ... and the related increase in oil prices.
fourth reflecting report sector strong
This is a very strong report overall, reflecting of the manufacturing sector rebounding through the fourth quarter.
continue economic half hold levels likely lower maybe mortgage next pace past period quite rates
If we see economic indicators continue to weaken at the pace they have weakened in the past month, then I'm wrong. We could not only see mortgage rates continue to soften, but hold at lower levels for quite a substantial period -- maybe the first half of next year. But I don't think that's likely to happen.
increased market perception responding
I think the market is responding now to a perception of the increased possibility of recession, which I do not see.
abysmal consumer extremely face hurricane october played report role spending taking value weak
Taking it at face value, the hurricane played a big role in contributing to the weakness. Consumer spending was abysmal in October and November. It's an extremely weak report overall.
across appears business consistent expansion healthy hearing improvement momentum reflects saw sentiment
This reflects the healthy expansion we saw in April, and it's consistent with what we're hearing from businesses. Not only was there improvement in orders, but there appears to be momentum in business sentiment across the board.
carrying course firm likely momentum sustained
We're carrying firm momentum into 2006 which is likely to be sustained over the course of the year.