Robert DiClemente
Robert DiClemente
energy negative period prices recall
I don't recall a period where we had this kind of a surge in energy prices and didn't have some kind of negative fall-out.
budgets changes corrected growth jarring local policy rates rather relative small spending state tax
State and local budgets can be corrected by small changes in the relative growth rates of spending and tax revenues, rather than by jarring policy initiatives.
activity businesses obvious production projects sort variety wary
It's obvious there's a lot of hand-to-mouth production going on, as businesses are still very wary about undertaking big projects or any sort of new activity for a variety of reasons, some intangible.
additional challenge data might moving officials present rates recent risk
For the Fed, recent developments present an additional challenge because data hint that officials might need to risk an overshoot, moving rates into restrictive territory.
fate hinges severity
The severity of the downturn still hinges on the fate of consumers.
awkward critical doubt fed forecast inflation level nearer rates
You've got this awkward confluence of a Fed that's getting nearer and nearer to some critical level of rates and an inflation forecast that has been more in doubt or more in play than it has been for some time,
employment familiar gap growth possible rapid reflecting subdued
The gap between rapid growth and subdued employment is a familiar story reflecting a possible 'once in a lifetime' surge in productivity,
anchor explicit fed financial inflation markets mechanism sees target
He sees an explicit medium-term inflation target as an anchor for financial markets and a mechanism for Fed accountability.
anecdotal colder depressed early evidence june looks might mistake retailers sales shows sign view wave ways weather
This to me looks more like what retailers had said, that colder weather in May might have depressed sales in ways that are not really fundamental, ... Early anecdotal evidence for June shows a snap-back. It would be a big mistake to view this as a sign of a new wave of retrenchment.
based corporate earnings financial focused gloom labor latest markets missing necessary restore risk third turnaround
While financial markets are focused on all the gloom ... they risk missing the incipient turnaround in corporate profits. Based on the latest GDP figures, corporate earnings probably bottomed in the third quarter. Firms are making the necessary adjustments to restore profitability by reining in their costs, especially labor compensation.