Robert Jervis
Robert Jervis
Robert Jervisis the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Affairs at Columbia University, and has been a member of the faculty since 1980. Jervis was the recipient of the 1990 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Jervis is co-editor of the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, a series published by Cornell University Press, and the member of numerous editorial review boards for scholarly journals...
accept although carry countries decide force helping iraqi military option passively perceives possible situation success support
Once countries know that the U.S. is going to use military force in Iraq, they may accept it, although not with the same support that the U.S. has had in Afghanistan. A lot of countries will decide to at least passively acquiesce. The military success in Afghanistan is helping to carry this support, but if the situation there deteriorates, how the world perceives a possible Iraqi option will change.
breakup interested iraq join kurdish north others result saddam south state support syria turkey unlikely
The Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north would need to join together, but the Kurds are more interested in independence. Iran, Syria and Turkey are unlikely to support an independent Kurd state because of their significant Kurdish populations, and others in Iraq will not support overthrowing Saddam if they think it will result in a breakup of the country.
anyone bin collects knows might reward thinks turn turning
If anyone knows where he is and thinks someone else will turn him in, they might think, 'Hey, it might as well be me that collects the reward money.' So turning in bin Laden can become a corrosive, self-fulfilling prophecy.
capture defended destroy easier elude hard less lighter likely needs target
I don't see how he can elude capture forever. .... The lighter he travels, the less likely he is to be detected. Yet he also needs protection, and the more defended he is, the more he is a hard target to destroy and is easier to find.