Sandra Petcov
Sandra Petcov
confidence consumers digging labor market persistent raise spending though weakness weigh
Consumers could raise spending by digging into savings, there's room. Though it may not be the most important thing right now, the persistent weakness in the labor market will weigh on confidence again.
declining downward employee employment german per rebound retail strong support though
Fundamentals still do not support a strong rebound in German retail sales: real compensation per employee is declining noticeably and, even though unemployment has started to fall, employment is still on a downward trend.
books brim business confidence doubt fiscal full german hiring large levels order rise seen since
There's no doubt German firms are doing exceptionally well: order books are full to the brim and business confidence is at levels not seen since reunification. But they haven't started hiring yet. They know that in 2007 a very large fiscal tightening is envisaged, so this could be a short-lived rise in demand.