Stephane Deo
Stephane Deo
domestic economy massive side support talking
I'm not talking about a massive acceleration, but little by little you can have more support from the domestic side of the economy in Europe.
domestic economy growth improve investment kick saw starting support view year
Our view that the domestic economy will improve this year is very much on track. We saw already that investment growth is starting to kick in and that will support consumption eventually.
domestic growth less means point poor
From a growth point of view, this means less domestic demand, and a poor growth performance.
remains trend volatile
Here, we also have a very volatile indicator. The trend remains downward. I don't think that has changed.
clearly future linked living rise standards tax
The big rise in future living standards is clearly linked to tax cuts.
france germany problem surprise taken upside view
I think there is a competitive problem in France and the view we've taken is that Germany could surprise on the upside ... while I think France could surprise on the downside.
close europe inflation potential reactive remains
In France, and in Europe generally, consumption is very reactive to prices. So if inflation remains close to two percent, that is a potential problem.
activity close deal guys high inflation percent remaining start wage
If we have (economic) activity going up quickly, inflation remaining close to two percent and a high wage deal in Germany, then the guys at the ECB will start to get nervous.
close german likely number percent
There have been a lot of warnings about German GDP which is also likely to be low, so I think a number close to 0.3 percent is more likely than 0.4.