Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
consumer early economy-and-economics gains income increased major next recession slowing support
Slowing income gains and increased uncertainty have savaged consumer spending. This has removed the only major support for the economy, insuring the recession will last, at least, into early next year.
continue early employment likely next october payroll percent
Payroll employment for October will plunge sharply and unemployment will continue to rise, likely breaching 6 percent by early next year,
basis early easily economy given increase interest last march momentum move points raise rates signs slowing unless year
Given the momentum in the economy at the end of last year and in the early part of this year, the FOMC will undoubtedly have to raise interest rates yet again, ... Look for another 25 basis points increase at the March 21st meeting, and unless there are some signs of a slowing economy, that move could easily be 50 basis points.
combined consumer early forecasts growth lower pace retail sales scope second slower spending vehicle
Importantly for the Fed, the pace of real consumer spending slowed in March, and combined with early forecasts for lower vehicle and retail sales for April, suggests there is some scope for slower growth in the second quarter,
adjustment although decline deep eventually factory giving rapid rate reducing sector slow ultimately
Manufacturing is still mired in a deep recession, although the rate of decline may be slowing. The rapid adjustment in reducing inventories will eventually slow and ultimately reverse, giving the factory sector a lift.
distorted effects figures foreign trade
The trade figures are distorted by the effects of foreign re-insurance on the World Trade Center. Nevertheless, international trade is contracting.
adjustment due factory inventory largely spring
The spring slowdown in factory activity, due largely to an inventory adjustment cycle, is now history,
aftermath associated climbed consumer december declines energy followed higher huge katrina optimism rita soaring
Consumer optimism climbed higher in December after soaring in November. This followed huge back-to-back declines in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the associated surge in energy prices.
bloated data declines demand economy further indicate output slowing
These data indicate that the manufacturing sectors of the economy are still reeling from slowing demand and bloated inventories. Further declines in output are likely.
correct cycle last
It confirms that the (Fed) was correct in pausing their tightening cycle at last week's meeting.
pleased
The FOMC will be pleased with this report,
gain given housing january recent spending starts strength warm weak
The January gain in construction spending was surprisingly weak given the recent strength in housing starts and unseasonably warm weather.
although benefits creation increased job layoffs number pace past people receiving remains state
In the past year, ... the number of people receiving state benefits has increased by more than a million. Although the pace of layoffs has eased, job creation remains nonexistent.
despite gains income labor moderate remain spending sufficient support
Despite the loosening of the labor markets, income gains remain sufficient to support spending at a moderate pace.