Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
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The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.
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Labor markets are deteriorating rapidly. Layoffs remain at a fast pace, while hiring has all but stopped. As economic activity continues to unravel, there are few prospects for a near-term turnaround. The national unemployment rate, now at 4.9 percent, should breach 6 percent before the economy begins to recover.
economic impending leading momentum past suggesting
Momentum in the leading indicators has slowed over the past year, suggesting an impending slowdown in economic growth.
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Housing activity, which has contributed significantly to economic growth over the past 2-1/2 years, has now passed its peak and will be largely neutral to negative over the next several quarters, ... This slowdown will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
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Higher claims suggest slower job gains, which should dampen income growth, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.
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Slowing income gains and increased uncertainty have savaged consumer spending. This has removed the only major support for the economy, insuring the recession will last, at least, into early next year.
activity aggressive argue economic fed moved rarely
The deterioration in economic activity would argue for a more aggressive move, but the Fed has rarely moved by more than (half a point) during Greenspan's tenure,
continue economic focus policy
The (Fed) will continue to focus policy on reviving economic growth.
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The gentle slowing trend that had been in place for much of 2005 appears to have been halted and partially reversed. However, like many other economic relationships, the one between the index of leading indicators and subsequent economic growth has loosened significantly in recent years.
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Households' economic attitudes have declined modestly over the last six months, ... But the level suggests consumers remain very optimistic about their personal financial condition.
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Although housing should slow modestly over the balance of the year, it is unlikely to generate the major weakness typically associated with housing during an economic downturn.
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The initial wave of layoffs in those industries most directly affected by the terrorist attacks has passed. However, there is another wave rolling to shore. This second wave will be from the subsequent economic dislocations caused by the Sept. 11 events and be much more diffused through the economy.
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Inventories are going to be largely neutral for economic growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, as businesses ramp up production to rebuild inventories, that will mean more hiring, more production and a stronger economic environment.
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Inflation is sufficiently low and tame -- and the economic outlook is sufficiently uncertain -- to be of little concern to the Fed at present.