Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
balance boost current economic inventory
We're going to get an economic boost from not only production, but from inventory buildup during the current quarter, and probably for the balance of this year.
confidence consumer fairly layoffs mounting point spending weak
The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.
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We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
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If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,
economy housing next period turns worst year
If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, ... Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.
based doubt inflation period pull sustained
I doubt that, just based on Friday's number, they'll pull the trigger. They'll want to see a sustained period of inflation before they do that.
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Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.
revision sure surprised
I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
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Historically, economic and political crises have been buying opportunities. Looking at 17 crises, ranging from President Wilson's nervous breakdown to the Gulf War, the stock market setback generally has been a short-term matter lasting no more than a few months.
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I think the Fed is pretty much done for this economic cycle, unless some major catastrophe develops, such as a messy war in the Middle East or a housing bubble bursting.
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Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
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The economy fired on all cylinders in January.