Tim Harford
Tim Harford
Tim Harfordis an English economist and journalist who lives in London. He is the author of four economics books and writes his longrunning Financial Times column, "The Undercover Economist", syndicated in Slate magazine, which reveals the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. His new column, "Since you asked", offers a sceptical look at the news of the week...
NationalityEnglish
ProfessionEconomist
bill bit economics gone people second signed sociology switched terrible understand war
Bill Phillips was this nervous, chain-smoking student. He had signed up to be an engineer, he had gone away to fight in the Second World War, he had come back. He had switched to sociology because he wanted to understand how people could do these terrible things to each other. And he did a little bit of economics on the side.
comics federal good guide monetary produced reserve younger
Funnily enough, the Federal Reserve produced comics about monetary policy, and there is a good comic book guide to microeconomics and macroeconomics out there. But it is not really appropriate for younger readers; it is really aimed at economics students.
acceptable certain failures perfectly success successes
In certain businesses, I would say 10 failures to one success is a perfectly acceptable ratio. Because the failures die pretty quickly, they're not that expensive, and the successes can be really huge.
amazing bad bunch cell complex computers economy failure good grew happens phones process produce time trial
Failure's inevitable. It happens all the time in a complex economy. And how did the economy produce all these amazing things that we have around us, computers and cell phones and so on? Well, the process was trial and error. There were a bunch of ideas, and the good ones grew and prospered, and the bad ones were pretty ruthlessly weeded out.
economist forecast monetary question treasury understand whether
I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.
mistake fixing firsts
Success Comes Through Rapidly Fixing our Mistakes Rather than Getting Things Right the First Time
motivation inspiration complicated-world
I see the God complex around me all the time in my fellow economists. I see it in our business leaders. I see it in the politicians we vote for - people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world, are nevertheless absolutely convinced that they understand the way that the world works.
successful errors trial-and-error
You show me a successful complex system, and I will show you a system that has evolved through trial and error.
phones cells ideas
How did the economy produce all these amazing things that we have around us - computers and cell phones and so on? There were a bunch of ideas, and the good ones grew and prospered. And the bad ones were pretty ruthlessly weeded out.
innovation
Failure in Innovation - it's a price worth paying.
economy inevitable happens
Failure is inevitable; it happens all the time in a complex economy.
unions company european-union
A lot of international companies invest in the U.K. as a base for doing business with the rest of the European Union.
motivation inspiration years
Ten percent of American businesses disappear every year. ... It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans. Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year. Which leads us to conclude American businesses fail faster than Americans, and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
struggle mean errors
Accepting trial and error means accepting error. It means taking problems in our stride when a decision doesn't work out, whether through luck or misjudgment. And that is not something human brains seem to be able to do without a struggle.