Timothy Ghriskey
Timothy Ghriskey
bit earnings economy higher improving justify lifted markets mood positive proof stock summer translated
We're into a bit of the summer doldrums. There have been a lot of positive earnings surprises, but the anticipation of that has lifted markets for months, with little proof that the economy is improving enough to justify those earnings. So the mood is more upbeat, but that hasn't translated to higher stock prices.
building calendars certainly clear coming fact favor highly historic market related seen since somewhat stock styles technology valued volatile wrong
We've seen a very volatile stock market since February. Different styles and sectors, like technology or financials, coming in and out of favor with no clear direction. There's nothing really wrong with techs. They are certainly somewhat highly valued by any historic measure, but probably not as highly valued as they were in February. We think, actually, come the fall, we could see a big tech rally, and that would probably be related to the fact that the IPO calendars are really building at the big underwriting firms, the big broker dealers.
beyond bond both initial issues morning number rally range remain stock stuck until
The CPI number this morning sparked a rally in both stock and bond markets. But beyond the initial reaction, I think we're going to remain stuck in this range until other issues get resolved.
beyond bond both initial issues morning number rally range remain stock stuck until
The CPI number this morning sparked a rally in both stock and bond markets, ... But beyond the initial reaction, I think we're going to remain stuck in this range until other issues get resolved.
early focused holiday january reports season
What we'll be focused on in early January will be more reports on how the holiday season went for retailers.
foot labor major next people seeing shows tends volatility volume weekend
We're seeing volume but no volatility in prices. And I think that just shows you that a lot of people are away and people are not making major moves. But next week, when everyone comes back from the Labor Day weekend it tends to be a big week and they really put the foot to accelerator and go, go, go.
earnings good investors last mostly news october reason saw seeing
We're seeing the same thing that we saw in October during the last earnings period, where investors used mostly good news as a reason to take profits.
barrel crude drag falls light oil parts price rally sets sweet various
Light sweet crude is over $45 a barrel now, and that's a big drag on various parts of the economy. I think at some point, the price of oil falls and that sets off a rally in the market.
high hit remember seeing selling
We're seeing a little selling today, but I think it's important to remember that we just hit an 18-month high on the Dow, and so we're going to see a little pullback short-term.
carry combined demand economy financial strength strong underlying
There is still strong underlying demand for financial securities. That, combined with the strength of the economy could carry us to year-end.
seeing
We're seeing a pullback really just from yesterday.