Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
decline four last third
This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising.
election elections moved sidelines sit soon
They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.
anytime events future plan
They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.
alan cut greenspan guess inflation last point quarter rate seeing
I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.
convincing early expect half improvement indicate labor market neutral next numbers production risks second suspect
I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.
call environment expect financial happen markets point stable view
From the Fed's point of view we've had head-fakes before -- I think they want to see a more stable environment for financial markets before they call it a day. I don't expect that's going to happen overnight. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away.
bond close expectation few given lows rebound recent sharp
You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.
confronted cut desired extended external financial global pat period rather shock stance stand time unless
I think their desired stance is to stand pat for an extended period of time rather than cut rates, unless they are confronted with an external shock to the global financial system.
couple experience given goods maintain market past terms
Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer.
accounts auto certainly consumers entirely fourth giving growth helpful hung incentives ongoing outside remember strength
Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer.
anecdotal book confirm economic evidence reports seems
The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.
businesses economic fourth growth levels losing otherwise risk
Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.
causing changes clear cut helpful labor lower market rates structural true unclear
It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.
bottom corporate directly good means news plus recovery spending
The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.