Al Goldman
Al Goldman
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The performance of the major stock averages didn't make anyone happy in 2005. But when you consider what the markets had to contend with, treading water is not so bad.
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The economy is growing at a reduced but healthier pace. We don't anticipate any inflation problems, and corporate earnings are going up, up and away. So, yes, we're still bullish.
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It is understandable why confidence is so low with what's gone on in Wall Street, but at the end of the day earnings per share will win the day.
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Second quarter earnings are going to be a very pleasant surprise. A quarter point increase won't even cause the economy to sneeze. It's so modest it will not be a factor.
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I think the main thing that's going right for the market is that we still have a very healthy economy, with rising earnings and benign inflation. On a technical side, I think the correction ended three weeks ago. The market has been slowly recovering its sea legs. We had five days up in a row on the Nasdaq composite, and that is the reason why the profit taking yesterday. But the big picture still remains very positive,
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Earnings are ancient history. The first quarter is under our belt. The market is now looking to the fourth quarter and ahead.
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There's only one reason to buy stocks and that is to participate in a company's growth of earnings and I don't know any sector of the economy that offers superior growth prospects looking out two, three, four, five years than technology and selected Internet stocks. It's been working for 10 years now and I'm not going to buck a trend like that. You buy dips. We had one heck of a dip that reached a crescendo last week and people who bought Friday or early Monday have reaped very nice profits.
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The Fed made a dramatic move today and it was needed,
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On one side, we've got pretty good economic fundamentals. On the either side, we have all the problems that are keeping everybody depressed -- Iraq, Iran, the price of oil.
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This morning's economic numbers were friendly for stocks,
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I'm very optimistic on the long bond. The fundamentals are there and the technical underpinnings are still positive.
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A number of the high tech names are getting smacked real good. It was already a market where investors were nervous already. With the darlings getting hit, that raises the anxiety level.
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IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is a very well-managed company, it looks to us like the shares have made a bottom, that the short-term trend is improving, that momentum is improving. And the company has had some disappointing comments to make. But that's already in the price of the stock. And the stock is down some 40-ish percent from its high, and very well managed.
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The message of the market today is that there is a lot of money on the sidelines and that money was looking for a reason to buy. And the main reason to buy is that we're going up. Momentum builds on momentum.