Al Goldman
Al Goldman
anyone averages consider contend happy major markets performance stock treading water
The performance of the major stock averages didn't make anyone happy in 2005. But when you consider what the markets had to contend with, treading water is not so bad.
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IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is a very well-managed company, it looks to us like the shares have made a bottom, that the short-term trend is improving, that momentum is improving. And the company has had some disappointing comments to make. But that's already in the price of the stock. And the stock is down some 40-ish percent from its high, and very well managed.
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Everybody knows that the economy is going to do better sometime, that the stock market will recover sometime. It's a question of when you are ready to make a bet.
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The fundamental news and the inflation news remain quite positive. We had that big six-week rally in October. Stocks at this exact moment just don't seem ready to stop this correction.
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The futures are flat this morning. We've had eight days of a good rally. The short-term momentum is still up for Wall Street but stocks are looking extended.
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Earlier this year, home-builder stocks were going up like Superman. Today's drop in the home sales report provided a good excuse for managers to finally sell those stocks and lock in some profits.
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There's only one reason to buy stocks and that is to participate in a company's growth of earnings and I don't know any sector of the economy that offers superior growth prospects looking out two, three, four, five years than technology and selected Internet stocks. It's been working for 10 years now and I'm not going to buck a trend like that. You buy dips. We had one heck of a dip that reached a crescendo last week and people who bought Friday or early Monday have reaped very nice profits.
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Drug companies are being hit by the Merck trial. But since their valuations are still cheap, we might see a sharp rebound in their stock prices soon.
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The economy is growing at a reduced but healthier pace. We don't anticipate any inflation problems, and corporate earnings are going up, up and away. So, yes, we're still bullish.
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The Fed made a dramatic move today and it was needed,
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On one side, we've got pretty good economic fundamentals. On the either side, we have all the problems that are keeping everybody depressed -- Iraq, Iran, the price of oil.
economic friendly numbers
This morning's economic numbers were friendly for stocks,
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I'm very optimistic on the long bond. The fundamentals are there and the technical underpinnings are still positive.
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A number of the high tech names are getting smacked real good. It was already a market where investors were nervous already. With the darlings getting hit, that raises the anxiety level.