Alan Castle
Alan Castle
bank cut expected inflation likely ongoing rate signs targeted weaker
A May rate cut is more likely than not, but the Bank is likely to need to see ongoing signs of lower-than-expected targeted inflation as well as weaker than expected Q1 GDP growth.
argue committee decisions few given hard impact majority monetary months mr next rate throughout time voted
It is hard to argue that it will have a significant impact on monetary policy, given that Mr Lambert had voted with the majority throughout his time on the Committee and that the rate decisions over the next few months do not look like being close-calls.
consensus forecasts growth inflation picture short weaker
The big picture here is that the Bank's forecasts for growth and inflation are different to consensus expectations for weaker growth and inflation short term.
businesses drag growth hand overall quite retail services signals strong weak
On one hand you have very strong signals from businesses services, but on the other quite weak ones from the retail sector. That's going to drag overall services growth down.
consumer pessimism peter reflects sector signs soon start strength view
Our pessimism reflects a view that signs of strength in the consumer sector could soon start to peter out.
apparent broader christmas consumer despite looking rebound remain retail sales spending supports view
Looking ahead, this supports our view that, despite the apparent rebound in retail sales over the Christmas period, broader consumer spending will remain soft.
actual fairly fall february few housing losing market months next obviously size trend
The actual size of the fall in February is fairly significant. Obviously if the trend does soften in the next few months then the housing market could be losing some momentum.
although buoyant figures further london markets national support
Although further short-term support to the national figures from buoyant markets in London and the south-east is likely.
basis becoming call cut february move nervous next point push rate ready throw towel
We are becoming increasingly nervous about our call for a 25 basis point rate cut at the February ... meeting, even if we are not yet ready to throw in the towel and push back the next rate move to the spring.