Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
deficit early fits peaked signs suggest views
It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization,
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
comforting dollar feels market meaningful months risk takes three
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.
economy energy generally reasons slowing stimulus variety wearing wide
The economy is generally slowing for a wide variety of reasons -- energy is one, but also the stimulus is wearing off.
impression worst
All in all this is very much second-tier data, but the overriding impression is that any slowdown is at worst modest,
august backlash durable goods july past pattern relatively seen september strong weak
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.
cut forthright future interest rates seeing seems
He seems to be more forthright in seeing a willingness to cut interest rates in the future than expected, ... It is uncharacteristically blunt.
erratic late market number tough trade
It's been such an erratic number of late that it's pretty tough for the market to trade on it,
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
bond cheerful market peculiar plenty seem situation
We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.
black carries inflation less likely policy problem risk targeting
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.
impending indicative orders overall recovery south trend
The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector.