Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
earnings fear front numbers obviously running soft sway wage
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
comments dollar reaction terribly
There was not much of a dollar reaction because her comments were not terribly fresh.
clear inflation lower margins point profit pushing rise rising seem sign taking terms
I think the only clear sign that would really tell you that inflation should be rising at this point is, of course, the rise in hourly earnings, ... But at this stage, from what we've seen, corporations seem to be taking it in terms of lower profit margins and, therefore, not necessarily pushing up prices.
economy slightly ticking weaker
It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along.
above consistent economic growth numbers payroll
Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend,
bank crowded japan
The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
bond higher might pattern provide resolved terms trading
To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields,
above economy head higher hikes inflation makers offset oil peek policy pressures price raising reacting situation slow starting time until
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
bond cheerful market peculiar plenty seem situation
We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
black carries inflation less likely policy problem risk targeting
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.