Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
clearly economy good head hurricane steam
Clearly the economy had a good head of steam on it right through the hurricane period.
basic comments fit funds likely pause peak perhaps rate
His comments fit with the basic idea of a pause at a 5% or perhaps 5.25% funds rate - more likely the former, but with no presumption that this will be the peak in rates.
best clearly close economy grew second zero
In the aggregate, the economy has clearly stalled, and at best grew close to zero in the second quarter,
confidence consumer energy housing hurting time
Housing may be topping at the same time as consumer confidence is hurting from energy prices.
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
deficit early fits peaked signs suggest views
It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization,
bank crowded japan
The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'
certainly equation far future good goods inflation pipeline side sign
It's certainly a good sign as far as future pipeline inflation is concerned, ... The goods side of the inflation equation is very encouraging.
bush drawing eventually market might move quite talk towards wall
There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
erratic late market number tough trade
It's been such an erratic number of late that it's pretty tough for the market to trade on it,
economy slightly ticking weaker
It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along.
change size
There's a sense that the world is changing, no question. But it's the size of the change that matters.