Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
comforting dollar feels market meaningful months risk takes three
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.
impression worst
All in all this is very much second-tier data, but the overriding impression is that any slowdown is at worst modest,
earnings fear front numbers obviously running soft sway wage
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.
euro led move skeptical upside weakness
The euro led the move ... and the dollar's weakness is broad-based, which is important but I'm skeptical that we're going to get a lot of (euro) upside here.
focus market price worth
The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve.
economy energy generally reasons slowing stimulus variety wearing wide
The economy is generally slowing for a wide variety of reasons -- energy is one, but also the stimulus is wearing off.
clear inflation lower margins point profit pushing rise rising seem sign taking terms
I think the only clear sign that would really tell you that inflation should be rising at this point is, of course, the rise in hourly earnings, ... But at this stage, from what we've seen, corporations seem to be taking it in terms of lower profit margins and, therefore, not necessarily pushing up prices.
august backlash durable goods july past pattern relatively seen september strong weak
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.
impending indicative orders overall recovery south trend
The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector.
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
clear inflation signals
we still don't have any clear signals that inflation is on the way up.
believe giving people pressure selling stand underlying
I don't think people want to stand in the way of this even if they believe there's underlying value. With equities giving it a kick, you're getting more selling pressure as well.
again appears bond bullish consistent data generating market reaction soft strong
Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.
again december evidence extent judging labor market might past
The labor market has not accelerated to the extent one might expect, judging from past cycles, and we probably won't see evidence of it again in the December numbers.