Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
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While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
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Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.
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As outgoing Fed chairman, he's clearly concerned about the asset cycle and the prospect the low concern on credit risk is going to be associated with a decline in asset prices down the track,
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Clearly the economy had a good head of steam on it right through the hurricane period.
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In the aggregate, the economy has clearly stalled, and at best grew close to zero in the second quarter,
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I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),
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Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
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It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
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The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.
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The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.
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The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.
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Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
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I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
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He seems to be more forthright in seeing a willingness to cut interest rates in the future than expected, ... It is uncharacteristically blunt.