Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
data edge fed fodder provides
The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.
certainly data encourage fed views
The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.
correct data encourage fed inflation looks tend views
The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
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My gut says the Fed doesn't have too many bullets left to fire, and therefore they have to use them sparingly, and we'll see a (quarter percentage point) cut at the next meeting.
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My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
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As outgoing Fed chairman, he's clearly concerned about the asset cycle and the prospect the low concern on credit risk is going to be associated with a decline in asset prices down the track,
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
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I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),
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Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.