Alfred Kugel
Alfred Kugel
capacity china current economic environment huge inflation labor plenty production seems unlikely
Inflation seems very unlikely to me in the current economic environment. We have huge amounts of production capacity and plenty of labor around the world, especially in China and India.
direction generally happen market oil opposite prices tend today
Generally the market will tend to go in the opposite direction of oil prices and sometimes oil shares, but that didn't happen today yet.
economy inflation numbers rising slowing worried
Some of the things that worried people, that the economy was slowing too much, that inflation was rising too much, have been assuaged here by the numbers we got this morning.
durable economic since
Since we don't have a lot of economic data, the most important will be durable goods.
coming companies earnings financial flat people strong trend worried yield
People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.
bad beating drums earnings energy helped higher market quite worrying
have been beating the drums about worrying about higher inflation, and so far, other than energy, we haven't had higher inflation. (But) I would say earnings are doing quite well, so I think that's helped to keep the market from having another bad week.
call christmas claims claus close either expect far given gotten low lump moves santa sliding suspect volatility week
Unemployment claims were OK. I suspect we're still in for low volatility sliding up to the close tomorrow. I don't expect any big moves in either direction. That's disappointing, given that the week between Christmas and New Year's is what we call the Santa Claus rally, and so far all we've gotten is a lump of coal.
couple cross currents difficult fact fed inflation investors next people pick policy proper slowing
We have a lot of cross currents right now and so it's very difficult for investors to pick out the proper path. People like myself think that things are in fact slowing down some, that inflation is not a significant problem, and that while the Fed may tighten policy once in the next couple of months, they really probably don't need to.