Andy Xie
Andy Xie
Andy Xieis an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist famous for his contrarian and provocative views. He left Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 when an internal email that he penned was leaked. He derided Singapore as a money laundering centre for Indonesia, and the ASEAN group of nations as a failure...
banks large number result state
In the 1990s, the state banks shoveled those deposits to inefficient state companies. The end result was a large number of nonperforming loans.
engaging far likely market oil price prices traders until
The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe,
boost encourage extremely greater investors lead positive trading volumes
This is an extremely positive step. It's going to significantly boost trading volumes and liquidity, and it will encourage investors to arbitrage in the markets, which will lead to much greater efficiency.
interest loses rate rise
If the CNY revaluation story loses steam, Hong Kong's interest rate could rise by over 100 bps soon.
bush economic government high moves oil prices threaten
In particular, if another Bush government moves on to Iran, then oil prices would go very high and really threaten China's economic development.
contain financial india interest raise rates
India and Korea, in particular, should raise interest rates to contain financial speculation.
expected less local push quickly
It's slowed less quickly than expected because local governments have been able to push through a lot of projects.
education government receive schools system
China's education system is a no man's land. Schools have too much autonomy, they receive government funding, but they are not monitored.
cannot capacity countries growth increase inflation investment
These countries are still pro-growth. But without investment to increase capacity and keep inflation down, you cannot keep growth going.
companies competition investors rely
Then there would be competition for capital. Investors couldn't rely on companies for short-term gains.
based capital demand depends excessive fund future india investment optimism poorer version
China's investment demand is based on excessive optimism about the future. India depends on capital inflow to fund its consumption-led growth, like a poorer version of the U.S.
assets boon both chinese economic european football games instantly liquid money overseas source trillion
Overseas Chinese control, by my estimate, $2 trillion of liquid assets that can be mobilized instantly to punt on anything from European football games to Shanghai property. This source of money is both the boon and the bane of China's economic development.
boom borrowed chinese due economy excess five growth last rapid slow
The Chinese economy has started to slow due to excess capacity. The rapid investment-led boom of the last five years has borrowed growth from the future.
growth
If growth in the U.S. slows significantly, all of Asia's exporters will feel it.