Andy Xie
Andy Xie
Andy Xieis an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist famous for his contrarian and provocative views. He left Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 when an internal email that he penned was leaked. He derided Singapore as a money laundering centre for Indonesia, and the ASEAN group of nations as a failure...
china game generating positive region sum
China competitiveness is generating a positive sum game in the region for now.
concerns currently dependent growth leading sentiment wealth
Korea's consumption growth is currently very much dependent on sentiment and unanticipated wealth gains, leading to concerns about the sustainability of consumption recovery.
advantage leader next
Over the next two decades, one of the two deltas will become the pre-eminent leader in China's economy, ... The YRD has the advantage in geography.
assets boon both chinese economic european football games instantly liquid money overseas source trillion
Overseas Chinese control, by my estimate, $2 trillion of liquid assets that can be mobilized instantly to punt on anything from European football games to Shanghai property. This source of money is both the boon and the bane of China's economic development.
engaging far likely market oil price prices traders until
The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe,
entry following growth past strong surprising three
This should not be surprising after the exceptionally strong growth of the past three years, following China's entry into the WTO,
boom disneyland opening prolong year
The opening of Disneyland this year could prolong the boom for another two years.
cabin difficult effect enjoy flight frighten kong last london masked meal mostly passengers people percent rate return three waiters
I experienced the effect firsthand on my return flight from London to Hong Kong last weekend. There were three passengers in my cabin -- a 10 percent occupancy rate at best. Hong Kong's restaurants are mostly empty. It is difficult to enjoy a meal with masked waiters tiptoeing around in silence. If you want to frighten people in Hong Kong, just sneeze.
based capital demand depends excessive fund future india investment optimism poorer version
China's investment demand is based on excessive optimism about the future. India depends on capital inflow to fund its consumption-led growth, like a poorer version of the U.S.
education government receive schools system
China's education system is a no man's land. Schools have too much autonomy, they receive government funding, but they are not monitored.
both china clear country developed developing economies meantime performing result saves spends states trade united
China is a developing country that saves too much, and the United States is a developed country that spends too much. The result is a big trade gap. Does something have to give? Yes. But it's not clear when that will happen, and in the meantime both economies are performing pretty well.
built capacity china commodity cost inside massive pressure price processing vulnerable
China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market.
due further growth oil percentage point rates rises
Growth rates could decelerate by another 1 percentage point due to further rises in oil prices.
interest loses rate rise
If the CNY revaluation story loses steam, Hong Kong's interest rate could rise by over 100 bps soon.