Anirvan Banerji
Anirvan Banerji
economy knock lined recession shocks
There are times when the economy is resilient. In all of the shocks where recession resulted, it's like things were lined up like dominos -- you knock one down and they all come down. This is not one of those times.
downs job payroll ups
We've had ups and downs in payroll job growth. The month-to-month gyration is inevitable.
admit beyond gets good growth half honest maybe ought
We have a pretty good idea (that growth will slow) for the first half and maybe through the summer. Beyond that, we ought to be honest and admit that it gets fuzzy.
half outlook recession second sign
The outlook for the second half is shakier -- but we do not see any sign of recession here.
actual economy gentle push quite tip
There are times when the economy is quite vulnerable, so a gentle push (from oil) can tip the economy into actual recession.