Anthony Cordesman
Anthony Cordesman
Anthony H. Cordesmanholds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studiesand is a national security analyst on a number of global conflicts...
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On a day-to-day basis, the overall level of security is obviously low. We can't secure the airport road, can't stop the incoming into the Green Zone, can't stop the killings and kidnappings,
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There's so much spin in these numbers. A lot of facts get disguised. . . . Total manpower is meaningless. The army is the key force in direct combat.
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And to be perfectly blunt, I think only fools would bet the lives of other men's sons and daughters on their own arrogance and call this force a cakewalk or a speed bump or something that you can dismiss.
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These are scarcely people you want to integrate into a national force. This would simply create sectarian or ethnic forces or divisions within the forces that already exist.
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America and its allies face many risks and problems in Iraq, but it is all too easy to snatch defeat from the jaws of uncertainty.
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This is the first step to allow Iraq to have a unity government, but it's only a first step. The question is, will the new prime minister be capable of leading the country?
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You're watching the insurgents develop more sophisticated methods of attack, and more sophisticated IEDs. They're using shaped charges and anti-tank mines stacked together. They're using 500-pound bombs that can destroy any armored vehicle. They're using these so-called swarming attacks, firing several RPG rounds at one lightly armored vehicle.
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The (United States) needs to stop issuing such nonsense as soon as possible. They have so little credibility that they can breed nothing but further distrust.
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They have begun to realize that when you focus only on the U.S. it gives the impression that the U.S. doesn't care about Iraqis.
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The Yemeni central government has done what it can, but it is very weak. It is not a matter of the government not trying. But there are limits to it can do.
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The problem with the speeches is they get gradually more realistic, but they are still exercises in spin. They don't outline the risks. They don't create a climate where people trust what's being said.
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The reality is that if the Shi'ites and Kurds can be inclusive and if they can reach a settlement with most of the Iraqi Sunnis, then the efforts of U.S. and coalition forces and the growing Iraqi forces are almost certain to be successful,
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The real issue is that they have a very large booster under development.
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Ulster (Northern Ireland) and the Balkans have already shown how difficult it is to split cities, and with Iraq's centralized and failing infrastructure, and impoverished economy, violence and economics cannot be separated.