Arnie Berman
Arnie Berman
belief confused people somewhat tech unilateral
There's no unilateral belief about tech stocks. People are confused and somewhat justifiably.
activity bond companies equipment market money providers scared service signal spending start
Consolidation activity is actually a signal that service providers are scared and will start spending money again. Equipment companies are long-term beneficiaries of this and frankly, I think that's what the bond market is smelling out,
concerns market rest
Techs are being impacted by the same concerns that the rest of the market is,
happen recovery second stocks technology
Technology stocks were grossly oversold going into this. The recovery in fundamentals won't happen all at once, but it will get under way in the second quarter.
basis history longer possibilities stocks technology valued
Technology stocks that were once valued on a price-to-possibilities basis are now valued as if history no longer matters,
associated best delivering downside earlier growth industry intel news pc positive rest returned surprises technology tends upside
A lot of the best news is associated with the PC industry. Intel has been not just a bellwether in the sense that it's big, but in the sense that technology as an industry has returned to positive year-over-year growth rates, and technology as an industry tends to be delivering more upside surprises than downside surprises these days. Intel started to do that earlier and more substantially than the rest of technology.
allowed charles finally happen marriage parker prince reminds union
This marriage of Hewlett and Compaq that's finally been allowed to be consummated reminds me a lot of what would happen if there were a union between Prince Charles and Camilla Parker Bowles.
companies delivering few group growth money narrow positive tech tends
You've had a narrow group of tech companies that have been delivering positive and accelerating growth characteristics and money tends to get concentrated in those few companies that are doing that.
clearly companies decisions forced investors sector technology
Companies in the technology sector are clearly overcapitalized and they are going to be increasingly forced by investors to make decisions about their cash,
easiest follows recovery simple spending technology
Any technology spending recovery follows a simple principle: things that are easiest to do without come back last,
begging breaking clearly industries pace picks question represent tech whether
Clearly there are a lot of industries in tech that are just begging to be consolidated. So the question is not whether the pace of M&A picks up in 2005 but whether it will represent a breaking of the dam.
believed cycles economic great growth investors late matters secular tech
In the late '90s investors believed that tech was such a great secular growth story that cycles didn't matter. In this rebound, the only thing that matters is the economic context.
businesses companies difficult mania midst money plays public pure throw
In the midst of the mania there were a whole lot of companies that went public that were just pure plays on the willingness of businesses to throw money at new projects, ... Now that a lot of these companies have had difficult times, it makes sense that there would be consolidation.
bar deliver growth hurdle ibm leap microsoft terms
In terms of the kind of hurdle that Microsoft and IBM have to leap over, the kind of growth they have to deliver is not as significant a bar as it is for Intel.