Avery Shenfeld
Avery Shenfeld
bank canada canadian fed felt force fuel hikes markets press providing rate
If markets felt the Bank of Canada was going to press on with rate hikes after the Fed stopped, that could fuel an overheated Canadian dollar, providing too much of a braking force on exports.
banks central continue economy guided longer models relate
Central banks continue to be guided by macroeconomic models that relate to an economy that no longer exists.
bells canadian dollar drag economy starting warning
The warning bells are starting to ring, that the drag on manufacturing from the Canadian dollar . . . is starting to show through, now that the U.S. economy is starting to slow.
bank case fairly reading remaining strong
All told, a fairly strong reading that will only buttress the Bank of Canada's case for remaining hawkish.
events mask month number strength true
This was a month in which a number of one-time events conspired to mask the true strength of the economy.
economy inflation material potential rate reward risk situation thinking whenever
Whenever you have a situation where inflation is not a material risk and the economy is underperforming, you should be thinking about a rate cut. There's a potential reward and not much risk.