Avery Shenfeld
Avery Shenfeld
banks central continue economy guided longer models relate
Central banks continue to be guided by macroeconomic models that relate to an economy that no longer exists.
bank canada canadian fed felt force fuel hikes markets press providing rate
If markets felt the Bank of Canada was going to press on with rate hikes after the Fed stopped, that could fuel an overheated Canadian dollar, providing too much of a braking force on exports.
bells canadian dollar drag economy starting warning
The warning bells are starting to ring, that the drag on manufacturing from the Canadian dollar . . . is starting to show through, now that the U.S. economy is starting to slow.
bank case fairly reading remaining strong
All told, a fairly strong reading that will only buttress the Bank of Canada's case for remaining hawkish.
built confidence equity given home household leverage rising sector
Given all the leverage that the household sector has built up, their confidence in rising home equity has been an important part of their willingness to take on all that (mortgage) debt.
benefit doubt economy fed pat signs slowing standing
If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.
events mask month number strength true
This was a month in which a number of one-time events conspired to mask the true strength of the economy.
continue fairly heavy major positive reports run toronto weight
We've had a run of fairly positive reports out of the major banks, so financials continue to do well and they have a heavy weight in the Toronto index.
bank basis canada canadian cooling dollar employment expect factory growth impacts leaving moderation points rate strong work
We expect the combination of a U.S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.
economy inflation material potential rate reward risk situation thinking whenever
Whenever you have a situation where inflation is not a material risk and the economy is underperforming, you should be thinking about a rate cut. There's a potential reward and not much risk.