Bernard Baumohl
Bernard Baumohl
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When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give.
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This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed. This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again.
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One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.
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There is a real sense of foreboding about the economy now that Katrina has struck with full force. This storm will be the most devastating ever for the U.S. oil and refining industries.
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If you take a snapshot of the economy right now, you could certainly say that we're in a sweet spot.
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Housing prices in many communities will appreciate less rapidly --- and in some communities actually fall. This reduces the wealth effect from real estate assets, shrinks home equity borrowing, and increases pressure on households to replenish their savings.
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It's fairly safe to say that the trade deficit may have peaked now that oil prices are falling and the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
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The current account deficit is a ticking time bomb. We don't know when it s going to explode, but it cannot continue the way the White House describes.
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The central bank seems more worried than before that resources feeding the U.S. economic expansion are getting scarce.
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A miscalculation in interest rate policy could damage the economy and force the Fed to reverse course later in the year by giving back one or two rate hikes.
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The economy is generating plenty of jobs -- that's good news.
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The latest batch of economic news does not paint a very encouraging picture on the sustainability of consumer spending.