Bill Dreher
Bill Dreher
believe benefit best discount energy expect increasing job leader looking people portion stores talk tax value
Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible. So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.
bargains best consumers game held holiday last mad minute result retailers rush spirit unknown until waited week
Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store. And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.
admittedly admitting cloudy critical holiday investors might second though visibility
They are admitting they have very cloudy visibility on the very critical holiday season. What might be more significant to investors is that even though they had an admittedly superb second quarter, where are we going from here?
buying christmas circle clearly confidence consumer decadent depress depressing four generous gift giving hog holiday issues levels numbers people presents question return shows spending three wide year
The same issues which are depressing the consumer confidence numbers are going to depress holiday sales, ... Christmas is going to show up this year as it shows up every year. The question is, how generous are people going to be? Are they going to go whole hog and return to the decadent spending levels of three or four years ago? No, clearly not. People are going to be buying toys, but how many presents they buy, how wide that circle of gift giving is really is in question.
chains department discount line mostly results sales
The sales results from the department and discount chains were mostly in line with expectations.
considered far financial impact item limited
It would be considered a non-operating item and really will have a very limited financial impact as far as analysts are concerned,
create great perception sales street true trying wall
They're trying to create the perception on Wall Street that inventories are in great shape, but how much of that is true sales of merchandise and how much is just accounting?
cents number pull telling
They're telling us to pull our number down by 4 cents (per share).
deal despite gasoline guidance higher period raise share
Despite higher gasoline prices, Wal-Mart was able to raise guidance for the second-quarter which is particularly noteworthy because that's also the period that they will have to deal with the lion's share of the gas impact.
brutal department focusing inventory looking promote rejecting shipments stores throwing
Department stores are already focusing on rejecting shipments from vendors that they ordered. They are also looking to promote inventory they already have in hand. As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.
last month september simply stellar surpass
Any retailer who could not surpass expectations last month has to have company-specific problems. September was simply a stellar month.
core far upside
As far as core operations, there wasn't much of an upside there.
appear chicken consumer fourth game holding improve initial looking margins profit profits quarter retailers
In the game of chicken between retailers and consumers, with one looking to improve profit margins and the other holding out for discounts, it would appear that the consumer blinked. The initial read on the fourth quarter is that profits should come in better than anticipated.
bankruptcy equation limiting missing situation surprised typical
I really would be surprised if they filed. The part of the equation that is missing in a typical bankruptcy situation is that vendors are not clamping down on them. Vendors are not limiting the distribution of merchandise.