Bob Schnorbus
Bob Schnorbus
consensus discussion easily general pull pulling strong
The general consensus (on 2004 sales) is 17 million. If manufacturers come on strong with incentives, it'll easily be 17 million. If they pull back -- and there's been a lot of discussion of them pulling back -- it could be 16.5.
clearance earlier high incentives likely maybe move period rather simply sooner trial wait year
Simply put, if the '03 had high incentives earlier this year before the clearance started, then the '04 are likely to have it sooner rather than later. The automakers want to give the '04 a trial period to see how they move without incentives. But they won't wait long, maybe only a month.
seeing slowing sort
We're sort of seeing an orchestrated slowing of the economy. But what we're not seeing is a slamming on the brakes.
low million rate sales third vehicles week
We had been projecting an (annual) sales rate of 16 million vehicles in September. If I take out a third of sales for only a two week period, you still come out with an eye-popping 13.3 million sales rate; 13.3 million is about as low as sales ever get.