Brian Avery
Brian Avery
causes change early extreme heavy rains warm
Extreme warm temperatures early on and wet, heavy rains could change that. That's what usually causes flooding.
assumes conditions current forecast normal problem throughout weather
That's the problem with forecast modeling. It assumes current conditions and normal weather throughout the period. That can go out the window.
dry february month
February is a dry month anyway. It's typically the driest month. And this February was drier than most.
below freezing last three valley
Much of the valley has been at or below freezing for the last three days.
good pull year
This will help. But one good year doesn't pull you out of a drought.