Charles Lieberman
Charles Lieberman
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Investors worried this morning when the oil inventory report was released, but the market is taking a second look and interpreting the data more carefully now.
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Overwhelmingly, I think the stock market is taking the view that the economy is doing well despite the rise in interest rates, and they clearly don't think that however much interest rates go up, that it is going to impair growth, or impair profitability.
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I think there's been a slowdown in economic activity, but I don't think it's been an adequate slowdown and I suspect it might be temporary. There isn't a lot of evidence yet to indicate that the economy is slowing notably.
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The economy is doing a lot better than people recognize and therefore, the Fed may have to hike rates more than they expect. The equity market is fighting the Fed.
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I think we have a recovery under way, ... At this stage of the recovery, the data are often mixed.
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As long as the productivity numbers are very good, the higher wage gains can be offset by higher productivity gains,
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No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.
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I suspect that interest rates must increase considerably more than is currently expected or has been built into forward markets.
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Inflation has been very soft for a number of years, and there's absolutely no reason to believe that's going to change any time in the near future.
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There is this simplistic notion around that because the yield curve is inverted, therefore, economic growth is going to slow down, but ... no consideration is given as to why the economy would slow down.
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But I think the underlying trend in terms of consumer spending and overall economic spending is actually up.
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This is a very strong report, ... The economy clearly is growing too strong and it's not going to stop on a dime, which is not very convenient to suit the Fed's needs and to meet the stock market's needs.
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That's the time when a big number is most likely, mainly when we're coming out of a recession. At this stage of the business cycle, to be getting a 5 percent growth rate in productivity for a year is really very impressive.
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Inflation, on the surface, does not appear to be a concern, but it's obvious that prices for some items are rising, ... It's inevitable that when people are armed with fatter paychecks and when companies are spending more to produce goods and services, prices are going to rise.