Charles Lieberman
Charles Lieberman
gains higher numbers offset wage
As long as the productivity numbers are very good, the higher wage gains can be offset by higher productivity gains,
costs inverse relation rise tend wage
As productivity slows, wage costs tend to rise -- one has an inverse relation to the other.
data recovery stage
I think we have a recovery under way, ... At this stage of the recovery, the data are often mixed.
adequate economic economy evidence indicate might slowing suspect
I think there's been a slowdown in economic activity, but I don't think it's been an adequate slowdown and I suspect it might be temporary. There isn't a lot of evidence yet to indicate that the economy is slowing notably.
clearly despite economy however interest market rates rise stock taking view
Overwhelmingly, I think the stock market is taking the view that the economy is doing well despite the rise in interest rates, and they clearly don't think that however much interest rates go up, that it is going to impair growth, or impair profitability.
built currently expected forward increase interest rates suspect
I suspect that interest rates must increase considerably more than is currently expected or has been built into forward markets.
clearly continue costs economic economy fed growth increase labor material problem rapid seen somewhere though ultimate
We continue to see very rapid economic growth which has been a problem for the Fed all along. We have not seen a material increase in labor costs and that's what I think is going to be the ultimate problem in the economy somewhere down the road, though clearly it's not imminent.
business coming growth mainly number percent rate stage time year
That's the time when a big number is most likely, mainly when we're coming out of a recession. At this stage of the business cycle, to be getting a 5 percent growth rate in productivity for a year is really very impressive.
bond driven interest market oil rates today
I think part of what has driven the market today are fluctuations in oil and interest rates and the bond market.
economy fed growth inflation mild pressure pressures relatively relaxed soft solid
Unemployment is sufficiently high, and the economy has just come out of a relatively mild recession, so inflation pressures are relatively soft right now. It will take a while of solid growth before we have upward pressure on inflation, so the Fed can be a little relaxed about it.
claims fact low
The fact that claims are low is very comforting.
august economy fed hoped investors puts
Fundamentally, the economy has not slowed as investors had hoped or the Fed requires. It puts a tightening in August back on the table.
answer confident fed interest markets number pull question quite raise rates trigger whether
Had this number been very high, the markets would have been quite confident the Fed would raise rates. The real question is whether they are going to pull the trigger on interest rates again, and my answer is no.
amount chance doctor dosage fed given judgment time
When a doctor administers medicine, he or she makes a judgment about the appropriate dosage in advance. The Fed has to make that judgment, but there's a chance they've already given out the right dosage and just need an appropriate amount of time for it to take effect.