Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
counsel cut dragon early fight inflation markets november rates rejected tried urged
Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.
bonds economy eyes falling fed growing jobs keeps pickup stocks worried
All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.
auction bid bigger charts demand indirect note november percent strong
There was very strong demand -- off the charts -- from the indirect bid -- about 65 percent, bigger than the 55.6 percent at the 10-year note auction in November 2005.
benchmark came large mac market pricing selling treasury
A lot of selling came in around 9 o'clock because Freddie Mac priced a large 10-year note, their benchmark security. Right at the pricing of that note, the Treasury market went down and it wasn't able to recover.
indicate reading softer
It may come down to 59.5. This reading would not indicate a softer economy.
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
economy economy-and-economics hit inflation last level surprised tested upside week yields
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.
collapse creating economy fears housing jobs market million workers year
The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
economy energy higher inflation prices providing remains
Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
geared industrial june last next production reported unlikely
It suggests that the industrial production setback reported for June is unlikely to last and that production geared up the very next month.
budget budgets number quite
This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.
bonds buy economy feeling giving juice losses stock weak
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
added boost changed cut december expecting federal funds limit low rate saying stock thinking today
We're back to expecting a rate cut on December 11. Meyer changed people's thinking by essentially saying there's no limit as to how low (the federal funds rate) could go and today we're getting an added boost from the (weak) stock trade.