Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
counsel cut dragon early fight inflation markets november rates rejected tried urged
Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.
action fed gone looking market moves though
Expectations of Fed action have gone though the roof. The market is looking for two 25-basis-point moves and one 50-basis-point move before the presidential election.
benchmark came large mac market pricing selling treasury
A lot of selling came in around 9 o'clock because Freddie Mac priced a large 10-year note, their benchmark security. Right at the pricing of that note, the Treasury market went down and it wasn't able to recover.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
final funds greenspan hikes instead markets meeting music prepared rate statement
The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.
collapse creating economy fears housing jobs market million workers year
The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
adding drawing fed fuel global guard market markets nearer raises rates rebound reckoning reminded stock
The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.
below claims continues create drop economic economy expect growth jobs labor market million month rate remaining remains solid
Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
close commodity economy hikes june members minutes past prices rate series since sounds stale until
While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
added boost changed cut december expecting federal funds limit low rate saying stock thinking today
We're back to expecting a rate cut on December 11. Meyer changed people's thinking by essentially saying there's no limit as to how low (the federal funds rate) could go and today we're getting an added boost from the (weak) stock trade.
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
credit due
We were due for a pullback in credit,
fed officials point suggest
There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.
broken budget constrain continue despite effort ink likely record records red remains side spending
The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.