Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
close commodity economy hikes june members minutes past prices rate series since sounds stale until
While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
decided path people prices resistance selling
The selling abated, prices stabilized and people decided the path of least resistance is up.
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
anecdotal consumer core costs despite energy far fed prices rising signs smoke
As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.
economy energy higher inflation prices providing remains
Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
consumer fears gasoline higher home oil prices rise spending
consumer spending has not been dented by the hurricane-inspired rise in gasoline prices and fears of higher home heating oil bills.
commodity inflation matter prices start time
It may be just a matter of time before the public's inflation expectations start to rise. Commodity prices are soaring.
bond gasoline prices rally reasons rising soft tough
Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.
counsel cut dragon early fight inflation markets november rates rejected tried urged
Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.
added boost changed cut december expecting federal funds limit low rate saying stock thinking today
We're back to expecting a rate cut on December 11. Meyer changed people's thinking by essentially saying there's no limit as to how low (the federal funds rate) could go and today we're getting an added boost from the (weak) stock trade.
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
credit due
We were due for a pullback in credit,
action fed gone looking market moves though
Expectations of Fed action have gone though the roof. The market is looking for two 25-basis-point moves and one 50-basis-point move before the presidential election.
fed officials point suggest
There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.