Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
bonds buy economy feeling giving juice losses stock weak
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
bonds economy eyes falling fed growing jobs keeps pickup stocks worried
All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.
economy economy-and-economics hit inflation last level surprised tested upside week yields
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.
collapse creating economy fears housing jobs market million workers year
The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
economy energy higher inflation prices providing remains
Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
below claims continues create drop economic economy expect growth jobs labor market million month rate remaining remains solid
Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
cash consumers continued economy expansion hear holiday hope means next optimistic period retailers ringing sales
Consumers are more optimistic during this holiday season, and retailers hope this means that they will hear the ringing of cash registers in what has been a lackluster sales period so far. This augurs well for a continued expansion of the economy next year.
economic economy given growth heart jobs number result risks sector service services solid strong
This is a very solid result for the service sector given all the risks to the economic growth outlook. The services sector is the heart of the economy where most of the new jobs are created, so a strong number bodes well for the outlook.
geared industrial june last next production reported unlikely
It suggests that the industrial production setback reported for June is unlikely to last and that production geared up the very next month.
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
budget budgets number quite
This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
final funds greenspan hikes instead markets meeting music prepared rate statement
The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.