Craig Ebert
Craig Ebert
abandon bank firm forget rate relatively reserve stretched talking
Forget the interpretations of recession. We're still talking about a relatively stretched economy. There is no justification for the Reserve Bank to abandon the firm interest- rate outlook.
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It's very hard to describe an economy with the lowest unemployment rate in the world as in recession.
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Wage inflation works with a lag and is going to stay high. It's hard to get too bearish about the outlook for spending growth.
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The presumption that inflation will naturally recede to the middle of the target band seems a courageous one. Inflation is likely to be higher than many expect over the coming year or two.
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We think it's one of the best statements from the bank in a long time. It states the case pretty clearly. It's unequivocal.
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There is much on the horizon to support household incomes, which may well prevent the slowdown the Reserve Bank expects.